What New York City Thinks About Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
It’s been 72 years since both Presidential candidates were from the same state. Franklin Roosevelt ran against and defeated fellow New Yorkers twice—Wendell Willkie in 1940 and Thomas Dewey in 1944. In 1920, two Ohioans, Warren Harding and James Cox, duked it out.
So what does New York City think of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton? Well, for one, they like to talk about Donald. In the past 90 days, Donald Trump has been mentioned 272% more often than Hillary Clinton. But that’s not necessarily a good thing: overall mentions of Trump were 16% more negative than mentions of Clinton.
Hillary Clinton, sentiment of tweets from NYC:
Donald Trump, sentiment of tweets from NYC:
The content of those conversations were also markedly different.
When we dove further into mentions of Trump, we found that most mentions were related to his support for #Brexit and his elusive #TaxReturns. For Clinton, the most mentioned topics related to the Democratic National Convention (e.g., #demconvention, #dncinphl) and the Republican National Convention (#rncincle). This supports the consensus that the Clinton/Kaine campaign benefited greatly from the DNC, and that the post-convention polling “bounce” was reflected on social media.
Demographically, there were a few surprises.
Demographic breakdown of people in NYC mentioning Hillary Clinton:
Demographic breakdown of people in NYC mentioning Donald Trump:
Surprisingly, we found the gender split of mentions to be almost identical. For men, the Trump/Clinton profile looks almost identical. But the picture for women is more nuanced: Clinton is mentioned often by women of all age groups, while Donald Trump is almost ignored by women 25 - 34 (-14%) — a group considered crucial to victory in this election. He’s also mentioned significantly less often by women aged 18 -24 (-7%). On the other hand, Trump is mentioned most often by older women, especially those aged 35 - 54 (+14%) and 55+ (+7%). This supports polling data showing Trump performing better among older voters.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to win New York state on November 8th. But based on social insights, it doesn’t look like he’s making up much ground with the electorate. He’s still viewed much more negatively than Clinton, and those negative conversations happen a lot more often. And while the only poll that really matters happens on election day, Trump is currently trailing Clinton by 20 points statewide.